Voici un tout récent tableau avec les probabilités de croissance en demande d’énergie. La Chine doit à toutes fins trouver de nouveaux débouchés d’approvisionnement.
Le vice-président américain Dick CHENEY s’intéresse aux sables bitumineux et les Chinois aussi.
Voici quelques informations de mon correspondant : "America is facing an energy nightmare of historic proportions: Where is it going to get a steady flow of cheap, safe and abundant oil to sustain its economy for the 21st century?
Everybody thought it would be the Middle East.
Wrong! Iraq, which holds 112.5 billion barrels and was to be America's oil ace in the hole, has turned into a slaughterhouse. Iran, sitting on 90 billion barrels of oil, just elected a terrorist as its leader.
Or how about Bush's friends in Saudi Arabia, with its 260 billion barrels of reserves? Forget about the House of Saud! It's over. The Saudis cooked their own books and are running out of oil quicker than anybody imagined.
One country, and one country only, has enough oil to keep America running until another cheap energy supply is found. And that's Canada.
The only problem is - China wants Canada's oil too... and just agreed to help build a $2 billion pipeline from Alberta to the western coast of Canada to ship the oil to Shanghai!
This competition between China and America for Canada's oil has created what I'm calling 'the investment event of a lifetime.'
"The Chinese are on an aggressive quest to increase their supply of oil all around the world; whether Iran, Sudan or Venezuela, you name it, they are after it." -James Lilley, ambassador to China under President George H.W. Bush.
Frightening, but true.
China is the world's second-biggest oil consumer on the planet.
Currently the United States exceeds China's demand. But for how much longer?
According to the US Energy Department, America devours 20 million bpd while China consumes a 7 million bpd.
Anne Korin, director of policy and strategic planning for the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security recently said:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that China's daily oil demand will increase to 8 million barrels of oil by the end of 2006.
"China's energy needs are going to be enormous in the future," according to Christopher Hill, the State Department's assistant secretary for East Asia and the Pacific.
China could top America's astounding 20 million bpd in 2030.
The Institute for Analysis of Global Security predicts that in only 20 years China will import as much oil as the US.
But I think it might be sooner than most think.
China's official state policy is the "growth imperative." To grow its economy at all costs, and especially before the 2008 Summer Olympics, which it will host in Beijing.
To do so, China has to guzzle crude oil to nourish its breakneck economy.
China is striking deals with oil exporting nations around the world to secure its supply that could leave other nations high and dry.
The US would be the most affected.
State-run Chinese companies have spent billions on oil assets overseas to boost supplies for the country. Chinese firms are currently striking long-term deals in Canada to tap North America's biggest oil reserves.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, chairperson of the East Asian and Pacific Affairs subcommittee, said the United States faces growing competition from China in Canada. "China has brought the competition for natural resources to our backyard."
Until now, Canada sent almost all its exports to the US.
Canadian and Chinese firms are now cooperating to build a $2 billion pipeline to ship crude oil from Canada's vast oil sands in Alberta to the West Coast to be sent by tanker to China.
Again, this is huge.
See, you have 2 massive economies going after the same resource.
It's the simple law of supply and demand.
Bonne réflexion ! !
Bien à vous
Roger LECUT Professeur de cyclologie boursière Administrateur-Conseiller à la Présidence de INVESTA